Trading With The Edge - v2

Boring Politics

2007-05-31T03:05:00.000-07:00

Politics is boring, but I found an interesting petition on facebook that is trying to stop Gordon Brown being handed the country on a plate. Click here to sign the petition.

I've missed the blogger tourney for the last couple of weeks. Not because Texas Calculatem let me down, but because I've been slack with other things. Two weeks ago I watched the quality zombie flick 28 Weeks Later. And this week I was helping to babysit a load of todlers.

However, despite my lack of worshipping, I've somehow caused a bit of controversy on Reeling Silk, after voicing an unappreciated view on a Tai Chi demonstration video. To stop things getting too heated I'm therefore hiding here instead.

I haven't done that much in the way of martial arts training lately. I'm old, fat and lazy, and cancelled my Saturday stick fighting session due to rain. But one thing I've often wondered is why you rarely see exponents of the more traditional arts involved in mixed martial art contests. Surely they have a moral obligation to show the public that practising the more modern arts is a fallacy? Wouldn't it be nice to prove to unfortunate kickboxers, that if they wanted to learn to defend themselves, they could do more effectively than by kicking each other in the head week after week?

DAX

2007-05-16T09:02:00.000-07:00

By 150 @ 7,517

dax

2007-05-16T08:57:00.001-07:00

sell 50 @ 7,523.

more dax

2007-05-16T08:52:00.001-07:00

sell 50 at 7519

Dax trade

2007-05-16T08:42:00.000-07:00

Sell 50 DAX @ 7,517.

Subprime fears add volatility to the markets

2007-03-28T09:11:00.000-07:00

The equity and debt markets are a bit shaky today. Bernanke is talking about the subprime market and believes that it won't spill out into other markets.

The weekly crude oil inventory figure was bullish, but not particularly unexpected, so things calmed down from last night's craziness. CNN have just reported that Iran is to release on of the British sailors.

Crude Oil $5 spike

2007-03-28T04:05:00.000-07:00

Crude oil futures spiked $5 last night on rumours that Iran had launched missiles on US warships.

Unfortunately the news occured at 21.45 GMT and I was away from the office.

US Home Sales

2007-03-26T09:09:00.000-07:00

Equity markets are falling in Europe and America following poor US Home Sales data.

Iran interogating British Sailors

2007-03-26T05:03:00.000-07:00

AFP reports that Iran is interogating the British sailors that it captured last week. If the situation looks like it's getting messy, the oil markets could shit their pants and rally very quickly.

Iran Kidnaps 15 British Sailors

2007-03-23T06:40:00.000-07:00

Iran has just kidnapped 15 British Sailors.

Brent Crude futures have just rocketed 1% and the floor isn't even open yet. It's time to sell this overeaction.

Debt Consolidation Loan – the fighting fire with fire approach

2007-03-06T15:08:00.000-08:00

It results in more smoke thus making the atmosphere stuffy
and that is the reason most people suggest you not to fight fire with fire. Same
thing is true for debt
consolidation loan. Another loan to pay off your existing loans will just
increase your indebtedness and delay your
debt free days.

Consolidation loan is usually a bigger loan that covers all
your existing debts. Consumers can repay all the outstanding debts with the
money obtained in the new loan. From then on debtors need not worry about
multiple payment dates, various interest rates and others. They just forward one
monthly payment to the consolidation loan issuer. Let’s summarize the benefits
consumers get with debt consolidation loan.

1) One monthly payment

2)All existing debts are satisfied

3) No more collection calls

4) One loan with comparatively low rate of interest

The story has been going good so far, but it won’t. Can a
loan of $1,000 be different from five $200 loans? Then why should one go for
consolidation loan? Perhaps low rate of interest is the cause; then again, will
it really help in the long run? Debt consolidation loans are usually long term
loans. Paying small amount as interest over a long period of time can fetch more
money out of your wallet.

Above all, debt consolidation loan is a Secured Loan. You
have to place your home or vehicle or any other property as security to qualify
for the loan. Otherwise why a lender would allot credit for a person who is
unable to pay his existing debts? And there lies the trick. By opting debt
consolidation loan you make all your unsecured debts secured and risk the chance
of losing your home.

However, for students facing debt problems, consolidation
loan is a good option. Since student loans are debt to federal government, no
statute of limitation is applied to them. Unlike other unsecured debts, if you
have a student loan, you have to pay it some way or other. Consolidation loan
for students is also federally backed loan that comes with some other facilities
as well.

All the other types of unsecured loans should be dealt
carefully. Credit counseling,
debt
settlement or debt management programs can help debtors get out of their
debts effectively and help to establish good credit in the long run.

Author's Bio: Ryan Smith is a contributing writer to Debtconsolidationcare.com.
Articles written by Ryan are highly accepted and admired by readers. “How to pay
off debts”, “Smart and easy steps to debt free life” are few of them.

Ascent Loft Conversions

2007-03-05T02:57:00.000-08:00

A friend has created a blog about a hole in his wall.

It's called Ascent Loft Converstions Hole Blog.

Debt shares dive

2007-02-01T05:17:00.000-08:00

My debt shares have dropped almost 50%. Not good. Yahoo reports that there have been profit warnings in the industry, and Debt Free Direct has noted that there is increasing competitiveness in the sector.

This news is bad. Though I'm glad I kept my position small, as I don't believe that it will take much to close this parasitic industry.

However, on a brighter note, there have been reports that housing reposessions are on the rise. And this will work in favour of my investments.

Dax set to die

2007-01-31T06:19:00.000-08:00

Rumour mill states that German supplies of sausages are running out due to a health and safety scare.

As the news becomes more widespread this could cause a short term meltdown. Workers could even strike as their food of choice becomes unavailable.

Therefore.... SELL THE DAX!

DAX set to rally today

2006-12-11T23:42:00.000-08:00

The Dax is set to rally today. Time to go very long.

Long EURGBP

2006-08-31T06:44:00.000-07:00

A contact recons Mervyn King is going to cut rates by 100 basis points by year end.

This should help the British Pound appreciate.

We are all therefore long EURGBP.

Buy CAC

2006-08-16T03:35:00.000-07:00

The CAC is going to rally this afternoon due to strong technical signals which are soon to be triggered in several quantitative trading models used by hedge funds and bank trading banks.

Also, some buddys believe that funds, having sold futures to hedge their portfilios against problems in the Middle East, could start to cover their positions as the tensions ease.

It's time to start building up a position.

Pricing Abheration... Dax Futures Are Undervalued.

2006-07-21T07:58:00.000-07:00

The September DAX Futures are undervalued at the moment.

A buddy at a bank informs me that German mutual fund managers are hedging their portfolios against the current troubles in the Middle East. This has led to big orders hitting the bids, lowering the price. And as other market players see the higher bids dry up, they hit the lower bids and further depress the price.

Also, the DAX futures are currently 1.83% down on the day, so the option desks of big banks, having gone short volatility, will be delta hedging their positions as the cash market comes to a close.

I'm now long, not wrong, and ready to blow the profits on Eastern Europeans down The Big P.

What is Israel going to do?

2006-07-17T03:41:00.000-07:00

The markets are going a bit crazy at the moment.

At 12:38 GMT there was a report that Israel's attack on Lebanon could end in days. Almost immediately, a government spokesman states that Israel has no intention of halting the offensive against Hizbollah "As of Yet". These conflicting reports are adding a bit of volatility to the markets.

Working from home next week

2006-07-09T11:32:00.000-07:00

I'm going to work from home next week. The tube has been rather stinking, especially when big fat men in suits forget to shower and have to squeeze into the seat next to me.

Working from home, in terms of trading with have a few advantages and disadvantages...

The advantages will include:

- being able to get up later, and thus being that little bit fresher for the 6am open.
- not running the risk of being late due to transport issues.
- not having to share a tube with big fat smelly men.

The disadvantages will include:

- slower connectivity
- slower news (I don't have a Bloomberg terminal at home)
- a lack of tea boys to bring me my morning cuppa.

Anyway, the first week of July was a bit poor, due to a significant decline in volatility and lack of fat finger errors. SMT SMT.

Cleared out my City Index account.

2006-07-05T05:41:00.000-07:00

I'm clearing out my City Index account. They were not giving me competitive quotes, so despite the tax free nature of spreadbetting, I've just thrown in the towel.

Is this World War 3????

2006-07-05T05:29:00.000-07:00

The US markets were closed on Monday and Tuesday of this week, but are open today. Hopefully we'll see a bit more action as the fatties do their fat fingers and I sit here to clean up the mess.

Have been reading the news on Reuters this morning and am a bit disappointed. Apparently, the 1% decline in the Eurostoxx 50 is down to investor jitters caused by a few missle experiments conducted by North Korea. How anyone could be stupid enough do dump stock based on petty arguments on the other side of the world is beyond me, so I guess it's time to pile in.

A new boring month

2006-07-04T10:39:00.000-07:00

After an astounding June, things are looking a bit poor for July. The low volumes in the equity markets may be down primarily to the US holidays, but I don't have a good feeling about it. Everything just feels so muted, but let's hope that I'm wrong.

Anyway, on to a more positive note, June was a good month for Edge Trading. A fairly persistent set of abherations in the ES and YM provided a few "all in" opportunities, where I punted my whole margin allowance in one go. I usually manage trades by adding to winners (trend following), or increasing my holdings as prices deviate from where they belong (stat arb), but the free stuff was abound so what more could I do?

Profits from the "all in" punts were invested in Eastern Europe via the Platinum Bar. The summer do will probably in some fancy restaurant with lots of posh nosh. Some of the boys are thinking of getting a few hookers from Angels of London, but I hope they don't get us banned or bring the firm into disrepute.

There was an interesting story on Reuters earlier:

Central Bank Governor Sultan Nasser al-Suweidi told reporters on the sidelines of a conference that the central bank was not buying euros at the moment.

"We're waiting for conditions to change. When there is a clear trend going up, you move into it. If it is going down, you wait for the bottom and buy. There is no trend at this point," Suweid said.

My Doctor is always telling me that "Only Monkeys Pick Bottoms". But it'll be interesting to see if this guy causes any sharp movements in the dollar.

Ban Speculation?

2006-06-29T08:06:00.000-07:00

Lots of people want to ban oil speculation. Click here to read the full story.

But while energy futures continue to pay my bills I'll continue to trade them all day every day!

What's causing all this bund craziness?

2006-06-27T01:19:00.000-07:00

The ECB's Garganas's just made a hawkish comment. This has caused a lot
of craziness in the Bund.

Volatility is up, FTSE is down

2006-06-26T01:08:00.000-07:00

I've been a bit busy this month. Volatility has increased in the equity markets and this led to some short term opportunities in FTSE trading.

Unfortunately, the volatility was accompanied by a sharp decline in the FTSE, so I lost my 5,500/6,500 bet with Mr Wheels. While my trading gains were substantially higher than my losses to Mr Wheels, the ego crushing defeat has made the loss pretty hard to bear.

Looking forwards, the equity markets were a bit quiet last week, so we've been kicking back and watching the World Cup on telly.

Warren Buffet has contined his altruistic quest and donated $37 bn to Bill Gates' charitable foundation (click here for the full story). What a guy!

FT Speculates, Be careful what you wish for

2006-05-30T02:52:00.000-07:00

From back page of FT, the writer speculates that we could be about to witness an inflection in the market (i.e. it will turn around and fall). His view is backed by the 4 event days (days in which an index moves by 2 percent or more in a day) in this past month. Prior to this, the last “event day” was in 2004.

However, I’m still long and not wrong.

Strip club takes off despite Wall St. crackdown

2006-05-23T06:57:00.000-07:00

A good story from CNN:

First publicly-owned strip club woos investment bankers and analysts this week with free admission and reduced drinks at its second quarterly "Due Diligence Ball."
May 19, 2006: 6:42 AM EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A Nasdaq-listed strip club chain is flaunting its assets to lure hard Wall Street dollars even as the financial community prepares to crack down on the after-hour entertainment expenses of its star deal makers.

Rick's Cabaret International (Research), which in 1995 became the first "gentleman's club" to go public, on Monday wooed investment bankers and analysts with free admission and reduced drinks at its second quarterly "Due Diligence Ball."

Inviting guests to check out the swanky Manhattan club, Rick's Chief Executive Eric Langan gushed about the delicacies offered, from live lobsters in the 80-seat restaurant to exotic pole dancers by the neon bar.

Regulators "can tell analysts not to go to strip clubs, but they'll never tell them not to do due diligence," Langan told Reuters at the club's VIP lounge overlooking a stage, where dancer after dancer paraded her wares.

Abstaining
Analysts inspecting the club's assets - even on their laps - declined to comment for this piece. The silence, of professionals known for their words, illustrates the fear pervading Wall Street since four Morgan Stanley (Research) analysts were reportedly fired after they accompanied at least one client to a Phoenix strip club in November.

A Morgan Stanley spokesman said the investment bank does not comment on personnel matters, and noted its entertainment rules which prohibit "patronizing, in connection with work-related activities, adult entertainment establishments."

Such rules are typical. But the New York Stock Exchange regulation unit and brokerage watchdog NASD filed proposed rule changes with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that would force firms to adopt tougher standards.

The NASD and NYSE declined to comment pending SEC approval.

Without specifying dollar limits or what is appropriate, the proposals aim to curb potential conflicts of interest from lavish entertaining of clients, and could help protect against gender bias claims as well.

Morgan Stanley and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, owned by German insurer Allianz AG Holding, have both been sued in the United States for sex bias in pay and promotions by female staffers who also alleged that male colleagues visited strip clubs and excluded them.

Morgan Stanley agreed to pay $54 million to settle the case in 2004 and Dresdner, which said it vehemently disputes the claims, has asked the court to remove that and other salacious allegations from the complaint.

"The rules are principles-based, not laundry lists" of acceptable behavior, said Travis Larson, spokesman for the Securities Industry Association, a trade group. He predicted that most Wall Street firms will be unaffected by the new rules since they are already compliant.

Indulging
Rick's, which runs 10 strip clubs in five states and has a market capitalization of about $30 million, posted sharply higher profit for the March quarter that prompted it to raise its full-year earnings outlook by 10 percent.

The Houston-based company cited revenue from its 10,000-square-foot Manhattan club, which opened in September in the shadow of the Empire State Building.

The club aims to blend exotic dancing with fine dining, offering $62 "Surf and Turf" dinners and $725 bottles of Hennessey VSOP cognac. Wireless Internet access and wide-screen TV sets showing business news are also incentives.

"We haven't seen a huge change in customer spending or patterns," Langan said, noting that many customers are small-business owners rather than big shot bankers. But company-sanctioned visits, such as the once-weekly lunches of a Houston Chevrolet dealer Langan declined to name, are fading.

"It's not as common nowadays, with everyone being conscious of the exclusion of women," Langan said. "But trust me -- those guys will still come. They'll just come in on their own."

In fact, attendance is up from the generation that grew up with MTV and overt sexuality, Langan said.

VCG Holding, another public strip club chain whose profit nearly tripled during the March quarter, did not return calls seeking comment.

Using protection
"The perception is that people are becoming less inclined (to visit strip clubs)," said investment banker Ronald Russo, whose firm, US Euro Securities, does investment banking work for Rick's. "But that's only because of the expense (account) issue. Otherwise, it's becoming much more acceptable."

To avoid expense report queries, Langan said businessmen often charge drinks and food to their companies and pay for lap-dances and private VIP rooms themselves.

"Why would people stop doing what they enjoy?" Russo said. "If you told me Ruth's Chris Steak House was too expensive, I'd still go there ... you can just lay off somewhere else."

http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/19/new....reut/index.htm

Free money is just round the corner!

2006-05-21T13:33:00.000-07:00

All the Sunday papers have been reporting wholesale doom and gloom across all asset classes. What crap. They even have pictures of dejected floor traders on the front pages of their money sections. The expected volatility and uncertainty caused by last week's US inflation figures have caused big swings and injected much needed paper into the market.

The good times are just around the corner, and it won't be long before I get my first personal lapdancer/chef to look after my every need.

It's FREE!

Candover disappeared but should be coming back

2006-05-10T00:32:00.000-07:00

My shares in Candover Investments disappeared from my personal account. The company is going to return cash to investors by issuing B or C shares. I'm not too chuffed as I'd rather leave my cash there. Forcing me to cash out just means I have to think of something else to punt on. It would have been nice to have received a message from my broker, rather than having to give them a phone call about it.

If any of you dear readers have piled into Candover as well, my broker informed me that the shares will be placed back into my account on 15th May, along with the chosen B or C shares. This was done to stop investors getting frightenned and dumping there shares on the 20% drop in price.

30y and 10y auctions today

2006-05-09T00:14:00.000-07:00

BBT: not sure if all of these are important for the market....
there is 30y and 10y auction today...30y holland around 9am and 10y greece around 10am....

Edge: Bank Station has re-openned. You’re probably right about the importantce of these alerts as last year things didn’t kick off until these were confirmed problems. However, you should definitely be at your seat rather than on the shitter if you know there’s a chance something might occur.

Bank Station Closed Due to Security Alert

2006-05-09T00:01:00.000-07:00

Only 3 minutes to go till the European open. I just managed to avoid the closure. There seem to have been a lot more security alerts since I started listenning to the squawk box. Or is that because these events don’t make it into the mainstream media?

Nick Leeson

2006-05-08T01:42:00.000-07:00

Just discovered that my idol, Nick Leeson, has his own website. Click here for inspiration.

At the moment Nick appears to be doing well giving after-dinner speeches and giving presentations on risk management.

He's probably also making a fair bit telling fans how he Brought Down Barings Bank and Shook the Financial World.

Retails sales artificially high

2006-05-07T23:33:00.000-07:00

Beware the retails sales figure on the sterling open today. The statistic will be artificially high due to the early Easter last year.

Liverpool Street is closed due to a security alert

2006-05-05T07:46:00.000-07:00

Have you heard anything? The squawk box just said Liverpool Street’s closed. No reaction in the Bund.

black smoke coming from moorgate tube?

2006-05-03T03:43:00.000-07:00

That’s the latest from Moorgate. Apparently traders in Tower 42 are watching it. I wonder what they trade?

tokyo earthquakes

2006-05-02T02:31:00.000-07:00

The squawk box just mentioned a rumour that earthquakes are shaking buildings in Tokyo. The magnitude is 5.6. Jolting East Japan. It’s not too large and there’s no Tsunami warning.

Bund Troubles

2006-05-02T00:49:00.000-07:00

Edge: It was a lot higher when I left the office on Friday. And I was nearly flat. Now I’m long and wrong. Any idea why?

BBT: i think bund gapped - fed's bernanke said something over the wk end or monday....

Edge: Yeah. The Bund gapped down about 40 ticks. You think it’ll retrace?

BBT: strong italy pmi data.. it may go down more..

So, following a good weekend, things are not looking rosy. BBT doesn't want to push up the Bund a few ticks to let me get out, so I'm going to have to sit on this one.

Get rich quick - 800% rates - its true...

2006-04-26T07:03:00.000-07:00

Zimbabwe has an 800% interest rate. Not sure if I'd want to transfer
any funds over there though.

Iranian President on Bloomberg

2006-04-24T05:57:00.000-07:00

He's chatting about something. The translator has the most unimaginably annoying voice so we've turned the sound off. Am tempted to go to the Bloomberg Terminal, hit the help key twice, and request they change the translator. But they might think it's a bit too rude.

Anyway, seeing as no one's listenning to what he's actually saying, we've just set all our arb programs to watch out on the off chance that he says something that upsets the market.s

RE: hi

2006-04-24T02:32:00.000-07:00

Weekend was good. Went out in Balham. What about you?

Not many plans for this week. We can meet up for a chat tomorrow if
you're interested/

Are you set up for the blog? I have mine set up so I can post via
email. Makes it a lot faster.

For example, check it out now, this email should be there by the time
you get this.

http://trading-with-the-edge.blogspot.com/

Man Down!

2006-04-21T06:19:00.000-07:00

Some idiot jumped under a train at Oval and I was late for work. Not good. If it had been a Non Farm Payroll day it could have been very nasty.

Let's get this moving

2006-04-20T15:21:00.000-07:00

We have a squawk box in the office now. It splurts out the latest news. I am thinking of sharing this up to date info as it occurs on this blog. For example, Oxford Street tube station was closed yesterday. It could have been a bomb, and if that had been the case then the trade of the day would have been to pile into Bund futures. This information did not reach the evening news, but could have been a big event.

Also, my Big Bank trader mate is thinking of contributing here. I'm therefore experimenting with the email functionality of blogger to speed things up. If this post gets published it's done via email, not the blogger website.

DebtMatters Triples Up!

2006-04-20T01:53:00.000-07:00

Debtmatters Group, the debt management firm that I bought shares in last year, have tripled in price since I bought them. This is despite the Motley Fools' negative view in their Your Loss is Their Gain! article.

Nothing else has tripled yet, lately, though The Mutual.net is up 179%.

Just to balance this out and keep things honest, Tikit Group are down 10%, and Clarkson are down 2.94%.

The FTSE has also just broken 6,100. So things are looking rosy for my porfolio at present. I just need to try to protect myself from future downturns as I have taken no profits, and my tipster, Wheels, recons that all these rallies are due to stupidity and unwarranted optimism.

My web side income has taken a hit due to poor SEO. If you'd like to take part in my latest project, you can post topics on my revenue sharing community site here. Basically, users' Adsense Publisher ID's will be shown on the pages that they post, so users will be able to make money from the content that they post on the site.

Debt Free Direct Doubles Up, Britons "trapped by debt burden"

2006-04-17T23:54:00.000-07:00

My Debt Free Direct stocks have doubled up since I bought them last year. Good thing I ignored that Motley fool. At time of writing, Debtmatters is up 167% as well. Nice! I shall invest the proceeds in dirty lap dancers next week.

The BBC has reported that Britons are "trapped by debt burden". It reports that 2 million Britons are saddled by more than £10k debt. A quarter people have over £20k of debt. Many indebted individuals are only paying off the interest on their debts, rather than the capital. All this presents a rosie outlook for the debt management firms.

Not much stellar performance to report from my other holdings. TMN.L is up 160%, but still has to replicate QXL, the hot tip that I scorned and ignored. Of the tips, the only one to be losing is Tikit Group which is down 10%.

It's a new tax year now so I need to start thinking of more stuff to pile into. The 3 funds that I've purchased - British Empire, Candover and RIT Capital are all doing fairly well and I might just buy more of them. Candover is thinking of returning capital to investors, however. THis is just annoying as I don't want to reduce my holdings in them. And getting cash only to repurchase the stock will do nothing buy benefit the greedy fat cat brokers.

If any readers have any stock or fund picks to recommend, please leave a comment below.

Here's the Debt story from the BBC:

Many in UK 'have £10,000 debts'
Almost two million people in the UK owe more than £10,000 on credit cards, overdrafts or other unsecured loans, a survey has suggested.
About 500,000 owe more than £20,000, the survey for debt consultants One Advice found.

About half of those owing £10,000 had taken out loans, about 350,000 had used credit cards, and 83,000 overdrafts. Others owed family and friends money.

GfK NOP conducted 1,910 interviews in February and March.

Most personal borrowing in the UK is in the form of mortgages, where the loan is secured on the property.

But this survey found many people are running up big unsecured debts too.

People aged between 35 and 44 were most likely to have run up significant debts, with around 650,000 people in this age group owing more than £10,000.

Many people are entrapped in debt, often only paying off the interest accrued every month
Chris Holmes, chief executive of One Advice

But more than 200,000 18 to 24-year-olds also owed at least £10,000 - about one out of 20 people in that age group.

"With many unsecured borrowing products having high interest rates, many people are entrapped in debt, often only paying off the interest accrued every month as opposed to the capital they have borrowed," said Chris Holmes, chief executive of One Advice.

"Those caught in this situation need to take action otherwise it is likely that they will fall further into debt."

IVAs

Last year, about 70,000 people in England and Wales became insolvent - for most, this means being declared bankrupt which can make it difficult to borrow money in future.

However, an increasing number of people are reaching deals with their creditors called individual voluntary arrangements, which involves a partial repayment.

Earlier this month, the government announced it was providing £45m to employ 500 independent debt advisers over the next two years.

The money will be used to help people in England and Wales gain personal advice on how to cope with their debts.

Through the government's Financial Inclusion Fund, it is being channelled to a number of organisations such as the Citizens Advice Bureaux.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/business/4914830.stm

Published: 2006/04/17 00:38:59 GMT

Debt stocks hit new highs, metals and oil hit new hits, barclays recommend selling duration

2006-04-12T05:20:00.000-07:00

My debt portfolio is now up 130%. That's not bad considering I only started to pile in a few months ago. However, it fits in with some news that's just come in from the squawk box. Apparently Barclays Capital has just recommended selling duration along the whole yield curve as the money supply could start drying up over the next few years. This squeeze could drive more customers to the debt management firms.

Oil and Gold are hitting new highs. Alas I have no positions in them. SMT.

Time to pile into Gambling Stocks?

2006-03-27T03:24:00.000-08:00

According to the BBC (Click here), Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams has stated that gambling is going to go through the roof in this year's World Cup. It could be a good time to start buying gambling stocks.

Amazon?

2006-03-24T01:25:00.000-08:00

An untested tipster has suggested that Amazon.com could be a good buy. I'm not too convinced myself but will keep an eye out. The chart is very shabby and Amazon is known for selling stuff at low margins.

Click here for Amazon information from Yahoo Finance.

It's free! FTSE hits 6,000

2006-03-17T09:01:00.000-08:00

As I predicted a few months ago, the FTSE has hit 6,000 before 5,000. Nice! I have therefore won my bet with the unfortunate tipster, Wheels. Unfortunately, Wheels has not taken the loss well. And suggested a double or quits bet for whether the FTSE would next touch 6,500 or 5,500. I didn't really want to take his free money, wanting to go blow the winnings on crack whores, but he insisted and threatenned to refuse me a lift to tomorrow's paintballing if I didn't take the bet. Oh well. I guess I'll just have to wait a few more months for a double sized payout from Wheels.

On the equity portfolio front, things are naturally quite rosie, seeing as the FTSE has hit new levels. I'm still waiting for the next set of tips, but will probably start piling back into British Empire, Candover and RIT when the new financial year begins next month.

Alvarion tipped, bought FLO and TIK

2006-03-08T01:00:00.000-08:00

I've just bought FLO at 99.5 and TIK at 218.95. Good stuff!

Another tipster, Wheels, has recommended Alvarion Ltd to me.

One to check out if you trade american shares. There is a company called Alvarion. They are an Israeli company specialising in this new Wi-max stuff. Intel (Intel News) are about to get there wi-max chip certified, which should mean the shares will jump.

Debt stocks double, more tips

2006-03-06T07:50:00.001-08:00

My Debt Matters and Debt Free Direct portfolio doubled up while I was pimping ho's in Vegas. Good stuff.

I also have more tips:

Flomerics FLO
Tikit Group TIK

I'm just going to buy them. I don't know or care what they do. QXL has multiplied 20 times since it was tipped too me (and I ignored it) so I know that I should not question the tipster.

Debt stocks double, more tips

2006-03-06T07:50:00.000-08:00

Why oil will hit $100 a barrel

2006-02-15T03:45:00.000-08:00

An interesting article on why Crude Oil could spike to over $100, from the BBC.

By Nils Blythe BBC News business correspondent
The era of easy oil is over, but growing demand from countries like India and China is forcing oil firms to enter unusual territory.
Mike Watts is a man of deep convictions. For years he was convinced that there was oil in large quantities deep beneath the sand of the Rajasthan deserts in Western India.
Few other people in the industry agreed with him.
Mike's company - Cairn Energy - was in partnership with the Anglo-Dutch giant Shell to explore the area.
Eventually, after some discouraging early forays, Cairn paid Shell £7m to buy Shell out of the project.
Then, just over two years ago, it struck oil in a big way.
The find was big enough to propel Cairn from a small exploration business to a company with a value of nearly £3bn.
No big finds anymore
Enough to make a difference in an impoverished region of India. But not enough to alter the balance of supply and demand in the world.
"The easy oil has already been found," explains Mike Watts on a sandy hilltop overlooking the Mangala discovery well which made his company's fortune. Oil companies are having to look much harder for major new oil finds.
And while some new finds are being made, like Cairn's in Rajasthan, few people in the oil industry believe that new discoveries will match the vast oil fields found in the 20th century.
And demand for oil is likely to go on rising.
Energy audit
To see why, travel a few miles from Cairn Energy's Mangala well-head and visit the local school.
It's the only stone building in the vicinity. The children walk here from simple huts surrounded by thorn hedges in the desert.
There is no electricity at the school or anywhere else. Local transport is provided by camels pulling carts.
And water is drawn from wells by hand.
Conduct a simple "energy audit" and you discover that the children use almost no energy. They were hazy about what a fridge was used for and few of them had ever travelled in a car.
But, with India's economy growing fast, these children and hundreds of millions like them are likely to become much heavier energy users as adults.
"If we are to rid ourselves of the scourge of poverty, demand for energy will at least double in the next 20 years," says India's former Energy Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar.
'Unsustainable'
And Mr Aiyar's view is broadly in line with the latest projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
It forecasts that the world's total energy requirements will rise by half in the next 25 years.
The IEA candidly admits that such an increase would be "unsustainable" for the world's environment. It argues that in future much greater use will have to be made of non-fossil fuels.
And energy will have to be consumed much more efficiently.
But at present global demand for energy in general - and oil in particular - is rising inexorably. With supply struggling to keep pace with demand, oil prices are likely to remain high for years to come, according to leading figures in the industry.
'$100-a-barrel oil'
Sir Bill Gammell is the chief executive of Cairn Energy. He's a former Scottish rugby international who went to school with Tony Blair and knew George Bush when he was just a young Texas oil man with a famous father.
I think we might see $100 oil in the next five years Sir Bill Gammell, Cairn Energy
Sir Bill's company was exploring for oil through the lean years of the 90s when the price of a barrel of crude was hovering around $20 a barrel.
Today the price is close to $60, and Sir Bill thinks it may go higher because supplies can barely keep pace with demand.
"I think we might see $100 oil in the next five years" says Sir Bill. "We won't see $20 again."
Next stop: Nepal
A similar view - from a rather different perspective - is expressed by India's former Energy Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar.
"As Mahatma Ghandi said - nature has given enough to meet man's need but not enough to meet man's greed. So unless the West curbs its greed we will stay in an era of high prices," says Mr Aiyar.
Meanwhile the hunt for new oil goes on.
Mike Watts, the exploration director of Cairn Energy has earned the nickname "sniffer" for his ability to find black gold.
He's now convinced that he will find worthwhile amounts of oil in the unlikely surroundings of Nepal.
Story from BBC http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/business/4713186.stm

Google Shares down 4.7%

2006-02-14T04:32:00.000-08:00

Google Inc Shares are down 4.7% today, following an article in Barons. Competition from MSN and Yahoo will add increasing competition. Advertising fraud isn't helping too much either.

A potential trade could be to short Google against Yahoo and Microsoft. Care would need to be taken with the Microsoft trade, as Microsoft's Internet profits do not provide a large portion of Billy Gate's income.

bmw.de banned, time to go short

2006-02-07T01:19:00.000-08:00

The website, bmw.de, has been banned from Google's search engine for using manipulative techniques that attempted to trick its algorithms.

It could therefore be time to short sell the car company, which has a pretty uninspiring price chart. Click here to view BMW's share price on Yahoo.

ICAP Doubles Up, Centrica Natural Gas, Annoying Phone Calls

2006-02-04T05:19:00.000-08:00

My ICAP shares are now worth twice the price that I paid for them in 2004 (Click here to see my old post). Who needs tipsters when you have The Edge?

Met a chick who works for Centrica. However, I failed to get any good insider information from her. Natural Gas and other energy related products could continue to be a good punt this year. Last week Natural Gas spiked 10% on war fears, only to return to it's original price at the start of the week. Nice! A report from one of my brokers suggests that the price of Natural Gas may spike to $20 I am therefore long a load of call options.

A chap called Julian Darley recons that there's some sort of energy crisis. He's even written a book about it called High Noon for Natural Gas: the New Energy Crisis. He might call it a crisis, but I'm sure Mr Darley is making good money from his book sales.

Got f***ed on a trade when a cold caller from 08004584727 interrupted me. c**ts! I should turn off my phone when in the office. It just annoys me when I'm disturbed by such trivial trash.

Russell 2000

2006-01-30T03:46:00.000-08:00

Been looking at the Russell 2000 index. Some info can be found here.

Contrary Opinions

2006-01-26T06:23:00.000-08:00

Maynard Paton, of the Motley Fools, believes that debt management stocks are Growth Shares to Avoid. It's refreshing to see different opinions, though I don't really disagree with them.

His first two reasons for avoiding these companies are:

1. Cash-strapped clients: Who'd want to rely on near-bankrupt consumers for their income? Not me. Apparently, one in four IVAs does not go the distance. In my experience, specialist finance companies with unwilling/hard-up clients can come unstuck. Read more.

2. Free competition: There are plenty of free alternatives around. For instance, residents of the Fool's Dealing with Debt discussion board cite Payplan and the Consumer Credit Counselling Service as no-cost substitutes. These rivals may well become bad for business. Read more.

While there's free (and probably superior) competition, Debt Management firms are always advertising their services in the media. A high proportion of "near-bankrupt consumers" will be financially unsophisticated, having got themselves so deeply into debt, and some will therefore make the mistake of choosing to hire the services of commercial debt management firms.

3. Poor cash flow: Companies in this sector appear to have terrible cash flow. Recent results from Debt Free, Debtmatters and Accuma all showed cash flow being swallowed up entirely by working capital demands. In my opinion, such poor cash generation among fast-growing small-caps typically heralds trouble. Read more.

This third reson could cause slight concern. And I have to be honest and admit that I don't really bother delving too deeply into company matters. However, I have managed this risk by only investing a small portion of my overall portfolio in this sector. I am also relying on the share price going up, rather than these firms necessarily performing successfully. This will dependent on human psychology as well as fair valuations.

Conclusion

Who needs ethical investing? We're robbed all our lives through taxation and poor services (e.g. the tube). While debt management firms are of dubious moral standing, there is little doubt that their services will become increasingly popular in upcoming years. The alternative (better and free) organisations will never have the marketing budgets of commercial firms, nor will they have slick salesmen to sell their wares. I will therefore continue to hold onto this punt and am treating it as I would a lottery ticket.

Ryanair upsetting customers with £5 baggage charge

2006-01-26T01:46:00.000-08:00

The papers are full of news about Ryanair's £5 baggage charge. With the air travel industry being increasingly commoditised, it might be time to go short.

Ryanair chart on Yahoo Finance

FTSE 100 News, Malaysian Blog

2006-01-25T14:08:00.000-08:00

A couple of useful resources:

FTSE 100 News - this page has news about most FTSE 100 companies.

The Art of Growing Money - this well named blog is by a Singaporean stock trader. He posts charts and gives detailed analysis' as to why he buys/sells shares. Good stuff.

FTSE Back up

2006-01-19T05:56:00.000-08:00

The FTSE has recovered a lot of yesterday's decline, following the panic in Tokyo. It's a good thing I didn't bother cutting any of those positions!

Tokyo market rallies after panic

Shares on Tokyo's stock exchange have rallied, one day after trading was halted 20 minutes early because of heavy selling by investors.
Japan's key Nikkei index closed up 355.1 points, or 2.31%, at 15,696.28, after falling by 3% on Wednesday.

The rebound helped lift stocks in Europe. London's FTSE 100 index was up 30 points, while Germany's Dax exchange and the Paris Cac 40 were both higher.

Wednesday's fall was prompted by fraud allegations at web firm Livedoor.

The Japanese company may be delisted from the Tokyo Stock Exchange as criminal investigations into its activities continue, according to reports.

'Sudden shocks'

Meanwhile, the head of an investment firm involved in Livedoor's suspect business deals has been found dead on the island of Okinawa in a suspected suicide, police said.

The offices of HS Securities were searched on Monday as part of the probe into Livedoor, but the company has insisted it has done nothing wrong.

Several Japanese technology firms rose in value as trading returned to something like normality after Wednesday's events.

"There has been no change in Japan's economic fundamentals, so now investors are moving in the opposite direction and buying back shares "
Katsushiko Kodama
Toyo Securities

The exchange had suspended share-dealing on Wednesday at 1440 local time (0540 GMT) - 20 minutes early - as the number of transactions threatened to breach trading capacity.
Analysts suggested on Thursday that there was unlikely to be permanent damage to the market's prospects.

"While the market took some sudden shocks, there has been no change in Japan's economic fundamentals," Katsuhiko Kodama, senior strategist at Toyo Securities told the Reuters news agency.

"So now investors are moving in the opposite direction and buying back shares."

Investigation

A spokesman for the Nikkei exchange said Livedoor has been asked to provide more information about whether it broke market rules on giving information to shareholders.

The exchange will begin procedures to delist the company if it is found to be in violation of the law, Mitsuo Miwa said.

Prosecutors raided the Tokyo offices of Livedoor on Monday, following allegations the company had violated Japanese securities laws.

Bosses at Livedoor denied the company broke market rules by giving misleading information to shareholders, but shares in the company dived on Tuesday, dragging the overall index lower.

One of Japan's best known internet companies, Livedoor had grown rapidly through a series of takeovers and stock splits into a group with a value of about 730bn yen ($6.3bn; £3.6bn) before the scandal erupted.

Its boss, outspoken entrepreneur Takafumi Horie, is a well-known personality in Japan.

The 33-year-old shot to fame following separate failed attempts to buy a TV company and a baseball team.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/business/4626688.stm

Good News for debt stocks

2006-01-18T03:41:00.000-08:00

FTSE is tanking today. Jobless figures are up and the Tokyo Stock Exchange was forced to close early yesterday as tech stocks were affected by panic selling.

However, the news for my debt portfolio as good debt helplines report record numbers of calls.

The following story is from BBC News Interactive.

Caller deluge hits debt helplines

The financial hangover from Christmas has begun to take its toll with record numbers ringing debt helplines.
Both the Citizens Advice Bureau and Consumer Credit Counselling Service have said their debt advice lines have had more calls than normal for January.

National Debtline has had 12,000 calls since 3 January - making it the busiest month since it was set up in 1987.

The group put the surge down to more public awareness that help is available rather than a jump in debt levels.

"Calls are certainly up and we are taking on another 25 staff, " National Debtline spokesman Richard Gale said.

Mounting bills

He added that calls to the group usually rose following the Christmas period as people began to take stock of their spending.

The average caller to the service owed between £5,000 and £15,000, he added.

In 2004 UK consumer debt broke through the £1 trillion mark, driven mainly by lending against properties, prompting stark warnings of future debt problems.

However, the most recent data from the Bank of England has shown that the appetite for debt among consumers appears to be waning.

Last month, figures from the Bank showed the growth rate of consumer credit - such as credit cards and bank loans - fell to just 9.8% a year in November, the slowest rate of growth recorded since September 1994.

Got filled on Lok 'N' Store Group

2006-01-18T00:55:00.000-08:00

Just bought Lok 'N' Store Group shares at 162.63 p.

I believe Lok 'N' Store provides customers with self storage facilities. I've no idea why it's going to do well but am not in a position to argue with my tipster.

Links:

- About Lok 'N' Store
- Lok 'N' Store Group information at Yahoo Finance

BullionVault

2006-01-16T01:50:00.000-08:00

BullionVault is a new gold trading system for small retail investors.

It looks interesting as

- it's based on an exchange model and allows users to insert bids/offers
- it allows users to build electronic trading robots
- new users get $20 to play around with when they sign up.

There was a story about Bullion Vault in City Am this morning. And a friend mentioned them a few months ago. I might have a play around with the system if I get a few spare minutes.

A good start to the year

2006-01-14T18:34:00.000-08:00

I have finally awoken from the New Years' parties. Spent too much on Eastern European lap dancers. SMT.

Having a arrived in the office I have found that the FTSE has rallied. Most other pundits were expecting a decline after the pre Christmas rally. Arguing that the lack of positive economic results indicated that the rally was nothing but meaningless Christmas optimism.

Anyway, I don't have any positions on FTSE derivatives, so such discussions are purely academic as far as my portofolio is concerned. What counts is that my stocks are performing well. And rather than do that rediculous profit taking malarky, I'm going to ride this move all the way to heaven.

Briefly...

My shipping stocks (Clarkson PLC and Braemar Seascope), considered together, are breaking even. This isn't too bad as it's a long term play aimed at profitting from the Asian demand for commodities.

ICAP is up 83% since I bought it a year and a half ago. That's pretty good.

The JP Morgan Indian Investment Trust that I bought 2 years ago is up 115%. Nice! I wish I'd bought more. But this has been a hairy ride. On the day the communists won the elections, this investment trust dropped 30% overnight. Nasty!

The debt stocks, Debt Matters and Debt Free Direct, are both up 50%. This is hardly surprising. The fools who overextended themselves are now starting to feel the pain. And these trouble are only going to grow exponentially over the coming years. The only problem is that I don't view these two as "ethical" firms (this is my personal opinion. I'm sure they pass all official criteria). While I don't care that much about the ethics of firms that I invest in (though I draw the line at firms that sponsor wars), I'm not too sure that they'll have my shareholder interests at heart when managing my cash. I have therefore only got a miniscule portion of my portofolio here.

The top secret tips... The Mutual.net, Statpro Group and Group NBT are up an average of 34%. Not a bad return. But they're all penny stocks so I need 3 digit returns before the reward exceeds the risk of these positions. I have also placed a limit order to buy Lok N Store at 161. I should get filled next week.

My eye has started twitching uncontrollably. I don't know if it's due to a lack of sleep or stress.

Tiring Weekend

2005-12-18T14:49:00.000-08:00

I am knackered. Have spent most of the weekend buying stuff for my new penthouse. It's a total nightmare. I really have no interest in buying overpriced furniture but my brother insists and I don't really care enough to argue.

Went to a party last night. There were strippers playing those PS2 dance mat games. Good stuff. Had to listen to people talk about career stuff. Who wants a f***ing career? Jobs are about money. A struggling gambling buddy is trying to exemplify this by becoming a bin man. Apparently they get £40k per annum, 40 days annual leave, and a 35 hour working week. So he can get a well paid day job and gamble in his spare time.

A former college mate gave me a load of abuse for a joke website that I did. He used to rank number one for a google search for the world's most elibigle bachelor. Unfortunately a random Fillipino chick found it and sent us a load of abuse. Some of it found its way to my mate's girlfriend.

The World's Most Eligible Bachelor gets hate mail

2005-12-16T08:00:00.000-08:00

I just received a really strange message regarding my The World's Most Eligible Bachelor page:

he doesn't look like a bachelor! he's not even a prince charming material how can he be the most eligible bachelor in the world??? comments about him interpret that he only like to f*** women how that be a eligible?! how can woman want him??? i don't get the sense!!! sorrry!!! im just telling you what's in my mind
/celebrity/worlds-most-eligible-bachelor/
Name Sandy
Email PROVIDED
IP 202.81.174.174
Time Sent Friday 16th of December 2005 03:57:25 PM +0000

I'm not too sure who "Sandy" is, but my tracking software tells me that she's from the philippines.

Hemel Hampstead Oil Depot Explosion Disappointments

2005-12-12T04:07:00.000-08:00

I awoke on Sunday morning to see the news about the Hemel Hampstead oil depot explosion. Reports claimed that the explosions could be heard as far away France and Holland, and my mother thought she'd heard the blasts from the family home in Surrey.

My first thought upon hearing the news was to wonder what sort of carnage this event would have on the oil markets. I was desperate to get into the office and trade the volatility. But then I realised that seeing as this was just an accident (or so they claim!), with little affect on global supply/demand, volatility would be muted.

From reading the morning papers, it seems that the only market affected by the explosion was the physical retail market. Stupid motorists have been panic buying fuel even though the black stuff going up in smoke is aviation fuel.

SMT SMT.

Buy CS Group

2005-12-08T08:57:00.000-08:00

Rumour mill suggests a buy of CS Group. The investment banking arm, CSFB, has been cutting costs and recently disbanded the most some unnecessary non-revenue generating teams. This can only be a good sign.

Christmas Shopping

2005-12-07T07:17:00.000-08:00

It's already time to start Christmas shopping. Don't think I'll bother with many gifts myself. I don't really want much other than lots of money or to get good at Poker. Lots of money isn't really a Christmas gift and no one but myself can make me good at Poker.

In the office we're doing a Secret Santa. The limit is £20 per gift, which means that the £20 dildo that I bought will probably be reciprocated by a 50p Biro stolen from the stationary cupboard.

Was looking at the random gifts from World Vision. But while it would be cool to buy a goat, I doubt I'd even get a picture for my endeavors.

My FTSE call was deterioting due to time decay so I did the stupid thing and cut my position.

Latest tip is LOK 'N' STORE GP (LOK.L). Not sure what they do exactly but that's not important. What matters is that it's going to rally after I pile into it. I might get it later this month when I get some spare margin.

Trip to Budapest, Hungary, with Easyjet and Easy...

2005-11-29T02:58:00.000-08:00

Went to Budapest with some mates this weekend. It wasn't the best decision in trading terms as my absence allowed the FTSE to fall below 5,500 to 5,477. Not good. I've had to spend all morning calling up my contacts and persuading them to push the price back up again, as I'm currently long a few January calls that are beginning to get hurt by theta and the drop in volatility.

Back to my Budapest tale - we flew like commoners on the cheap flight carrier, Easyjet, and were taken in by the bright orange jackets worn by the hot air stewardesses. The hotel was good and we sampled culinary delights, though the best dish by far was the French Onion soup served in a bread roll. I wish someone would sell similar stuff here in the City of London. Eat does nice soups, but none of them come in a hollowed out bread roll.

We did not get much sleep in Budapest and spent our time both site seeing and visiting the bars.

The Kitty came out, so the blapman decided to beat him within an inch of his life and lock him in a room with a crack whore for the night.

The donkey made an accomodation mistake and was forced to watch the dogging antics of his room mate.

Mr Hundekk, happily married and with a child born only last week, was seduced by a 15 year old Latvian peasant girl. Fortunately he managed to defend himself from her witch like charms by plying her with drink, upon which he passed out. However, he was not satisfied in his inebriated state, and therefore finished himself off in her nose. Very unpleasant and he did not need to share that with us. We therefore fined him the next day by forcing him to snort some shots of Unicum, Hungary's favourite liquor.

We tried making money in the casino on our last night. The retail exchange rate was 339 - 400. That's a 20% spread about the mid price and I felt royally screwed. It was therefore decided that we should either make a million or lose it all in the casino. The classy establishment was the Vakert Casino, and as in the UK, we were obliged to join before hitting the tables. I almost managed to get my sexy pic on the Donkey's card, but the chick behind the desk soon noticed that the Roland Rat lookalike did not bear any resemblance to the well chisseled youth before her. Anyway, the tables were a real let down. As in trading, I like to punt and let luck carry me through. However, I managed to lose 10 consecutive bets on zero at Roulette. Not a good start. I therefore proceeded to hit the Black Jack. Having read Bringing Down the House, an excellent book about an MIT Black Jack card counting team, I was keen to work the skills. However, only 3 opportunities arose, and I could tell that the pit boss was glaring at me out of the corner of his eye. I guess that's why the guys in Bringing Down the House had to do their card counting in teams.

Now it's time to make some money before Christmas!

Debt Free Direct, who needs a stop loss!!!???

2005-11-29T02:29:00.000-08:00

Debt Free Direct (DFD) have predicted that their profits would exceed expectations by 10% for the full year.

That's hardly surprising, considering the increasing number of people seeking IVA's (Individual Voluntary Arrangements), and numbers are only going to increase as more people slip up and near the brink of bankruptcy.

Anyway, while all this debt malarky is bad news for some, it's damn good news for others such as Debt Free Direct, their employees, and most importantly - investors such as myself.

After eading about debt problems in the news everyday, it is surprising that the tipsters aren't advising investors to pile into debt management companies. But that void was a low risk opportunity for myself as I purchased Debt Free Direct at 197 (now 224.8), and Debtmatters at 117.75 (now 126.0) a few months ago. Though both firms' share prices initially fell, this recent news has pushed them to new highs and I'm now showing a small profit. My plan is to hold on to debt related stocks for the next few years as debt management firms make easy money from the inevitable debt bubble.

Merk to axe 7,000 jobs, CEO Richard Clark gives few details

2005-11-29T02:21:00.000-08:00

Merk has announced that it is to axe 7,000 jobs following last year's withdrawal of its Vioxx (Rofecoxib) pain killer next year. Chief executive Richard Clark did not give many details, but half the job losses could occur in America.

I'm not too sure if there are many positive prospects for Merk or Richard Clark at present. The losses arising from last years $250m Viox lawsuit, and subsequent loss of reputation, could affect it for years to come.

I might therefore take a punt on long expiry put options.

really wierd website

2005-11-20T13:47:00.000-08:00

Found the strangest site imaginable:

http://lyrical.freeownhost.com/

It appears to just have strange content about animals. None of it makes sense though.

Hand Problem

2005-11-18T15:56:00.000-08:00

My hand is a bit fucked.

Basically the skin is so dry that it cracks and bleeds. At the moment it's only oozing though.

The doc said I had infected excema and gave me Trimovate cream to put on 3 times a day for 3 weeks. It's a cream with stuff to kill the infection as well. I did that and it was damn good. The skin was back to normal after about 3 days.

But when I stopped the Trimovate it got dry again. So I went back to the doc. He gave me Unguentum, which is a moisturising cream, but doesn't have the steroids to control the infection. Unfortunately while it's moisturising it doesn't stop my skin going red and becoming dry after a few hours. So I guess the infection's back.

I've tried going back to Trimovate but whenever I stop the infection comes back. I now need to go and see the doc again, but due to the NHS booking system that'll be about 5 days away if I'm lucky.

So, if any of you readers are doctors, please have a look at these pics and let me know what you think.

Adsense - easy money from your website

2005-11-15T05:41:00.000-08:00

interesting

2005-11-10T23:56:00.000-08:00

Does the statement, "We've always done it that way" ring any bells?

The U.S. standard railroad gauge (distance between rails) is 4 feet, 8.5 inchs. That's an exceedingly odd number... Why was that gauge used?
Because that's the way they built them in England, and English expatriates built the US Railroads.

Why did the English build them like that?
Because the first rail lines were built by the same people who built the pre railroad tramways, and that's the gauge they used.

Why did "they" use that gauge then?
Because the people who built the tramways used the same jigs and tools that they used for building wagons, which used that wheel spacing. Okay!

Why did the wagons have that particular odd wheel spacing?
Well, if they tried to use any other spacing, the wagon wheels would break on some of the old, long distance roads in England, because that's the spacing of the wheel ruts.

S! o, who built those old rutted roads?
Imperial Rome built the first long distance roads in Europe (and England) for their legions. The roads have been used ever since.

What about the ruts in the roads?
Roman war chariots formed the initial ruts, which everyone else had to match for fear of destroying their wagon wheels. Since the chariots were made for Imperial Rome, they were all alike in the matter of wheel spacing. The United States standard railroad gauge of 4 feet, 8.5 inches is derived from the original specifications for an Imperial Roman war chariot.
And bureaucracies live forever.....

So the next time you are handed a specification and told we have always done it that way and wonder what horse's ass came up with that, you may be exactly right. The Imperial Roman war chariots were made just wide enough to accommodate the back ends of two war horses.

Now the twist to the story... When you see a Space Shuttle sitting on its launch pa! d, there are two big booster rockets attached to the sides of the main fuel tank. These are solid rocket boosters, or SRBs. Thiokol makes the SRBs at their factory in Utah.

The engineers who designed the SRBs would have preferred to make them a bit fatter, but the SRBs had to be shipped by train from the factory to the launch site. The railroad line from the factory happens to run through a tunnel in the mountains. The SRBs had to fit through that tunnel. The tunnel is slightly wider than the railroad track, and the railroad track, as you now know, is about as wide as two horses' behinds.

So, a major Space Shuttle design feature of what is arguably the world's most advanced transportation system was determined over two thousand years ago by the width of a horse's ass.

And you thought being a horse's ass wasn't important?

Free monkey book - The Beginner's Guide to Financial Spread Betting

2005-11-10T00:46:00.000-08:00

I didn't quite win the Tradindex competition last week, but atleast I got a free book (The Beginner's Guide to Financial Spread Betting) out of it. For your own copy click here.

It's not a good book, but you can always put it on eBay.

Favourite bits of the book

- In one of the case studies, the subject uses the "when in trouble double" strategy. Classic!

- They tell of how a couple of guys turned £1,000 to £1,000,000 in 8 weeks during 2003. Sounds impressive, but with a large number of ballsy clients it's hardly unfeasable. Especially with the volatility that was present in 2003.

How to discover a client who can turn £1,000 into £1,000,000 in 10 weeks

Consider a group of 1,000 spread betters each depositing £1,000 at a fictional spread betting firm called Spreadco.

Assume that the markets are volatile enough for atleast one trade to be openned and closed each week. And that each of the 1,000 spread betters open and close 1 trade each week, for 10 weeks.

Assume a frictionless spread free market (this assumption gets more reasonable as the markets get more volatile), that each "trader" has a 50% chance of winning, and that the risk/reward ratio is 1:1.

i.e. if they bet £1, they have a 50% of winning £1, or a 50% of losing £1.

Assume that each trader bets their entire account on each bet. This will mean that they either double up or lose their whole account when the bet is close.

The chances for a trader to win one bet for each of the 10 weeks is 0.5 ^ 10 (a half to the power of 10), or 1 in 1,024. This means that we'd expect one of the 1,000 traders to turn their £1,000 into £1,024,000.

Add a bit of luck and more active trading (i.e. 10 trades in 8 weeks), and it's not unexpected to find a trader to turn £1,000 to £1,000,000 in 8 weeks.

However, all the other traders who don't make it will lose their entire £1,000.

DVD writer and palm pilot for sale

2005-11-10T00:42:00.000-08:00

Alright,

Not too sure if anyone might be interested, but my mate is selling the following:

Palm Pilot and DVD writer that are both in excellent condition & still under warranty

Palm Pilot £ 10

DVD Writer £ 15

Let me know if you want more of them or additional info: photos attached

Palm Pilot

DVD Writer

Tough Month

2005-10-29T07:49:00.000-07:00

October has been a tough month. The big drop in equities caused a stretch my relative value models and made the stat arbs hard to execute.

Next month I may start trading the Fixed Income futures in Sydney, working the overnight shift in London. Desperate times call for desperate solutions.

I have done a sample of the permanent pages that I'm trying to sell. The url of the page is here. If you'd like your own promotional page on my website please let me know via a comment.

Profile

Holiday photos

2005-10-27T05:33:00.000-07:00

Diversification - Permanent Web Pages!

2005-10-23T05:33:00.000-07:00

The markets have been a bit shit. The FTSE's decline over the last couple of weeks hasn't really hurt my long portfolio, due to my option plays, but the expected volatility has not appeared. The Sunday Times has an article telling investors not to panic, but panic is exactly what I need!

To combat this lack of income I've therefore set up a small website on which I'm planning to sell permanent pages. What I'm offering is to place permanent (promotional) pages on personal-finance.tv. The general idea behind this is that buyers can use the pages to promote their businesses and websites. And as the personal-finance.tv website expands, the link popularity that buyers receive from their promotional pages should increase.

In order to keep things simple I have listed the product on ebay. If you're interested please click here to view my eBay listing.

Refco's troubles could lead to some nice trading opportunities

2005-10-16T07:41:00.000-07:00

All the news about Refco has caused quite a stir over the last few days.

The news channels and papers report that their credit lines are closing. But the best story I heard was of their FX desk in London. Apparently the guys were doing their stuff when their screens suddenly blacked out. They called over the IT support desk to get it fixed quickly - currency markets move quickly and even 10 seconds out the market can be costly. However, rather than receiving support they were told that their credit lines were pulled and that the FX desk was closing for the time being.

Michael Greengerger of the University of Maryland was quoted in the Sunday Times as saying that Refco could be the harbinger of a far bigger problem. Apparently he said:

"My fear is that Refco is the canary singing in the mine. I hope I'm wrong."

And

"There is a potential 100-year storm in the market."

Being part of a glorious capitalist I've had to think "what does all this mean for me?". Well, I have no account with Refco and clear through one of Wallstreets biggest banks. Should my clearer go down the drain then it'll probably get bailed out, as happenned with Long Term Capital Management.

I'm therefore fairly confident that my future trades will be honoured and that I'll be able trade in the belief that no one is going to run off with my money.

In terms of actually trading I'm looking forward to any resultant chaos that may ensue. My markets were unaffected last week but rumour mill says that Refco's London arcade was home to a load of 500 lot Bund traders. Worries about their livelihoods, and the fear (from other participants) and potential to do dodgy shit with give up trades could add some nice volatility. I just hope that some of it transfers to the European equities that I've been trading lately as October has been a bit of a crap month.

For the latest news on Refco, please Click Here.

Cute dog

2005-10-15T09:27:00.000-07:00

This is Juice's new dog

Having a bad day?

2005-10-14T13:12:00.000-07:00

I haven't posted any random joke emails before, but the following is very inspirational. It reminds me of what a friend used to do to good old Johnny Mack a few years back though I don't think he ever got past the receptionist.

For all of you who occasionally have a really bad day when you just need to take it out on someone! Don't take that bad day out on someone you know, take it out on someone you DON'T know!...

Now get this. I was sitting at my desk, when I remembered a phone call I had to make. I found the number and dialed it. A man answered saying, "Hello?"
I politely said, "This is Fred Hanifin and could I please speak to Robin Carter?"
Suddenly the phone was slammed down on me! I couldn't believe that anyone could be that rude. I tracked down Robin's correct number and called her. She had transposed the last two digits incorrectly.

After I hung up with Robin, I spotted the wrong number still lying there on my desk. I decided to call it again. When the same person once more answered, I yelled "You're an ars***e!" and hung up.

Next to his phone number I wrote the word "ars***e," and put it in my desk drawer. Every couple of weeks, when I was paying bills, or had a really bad day, I'd call him up. He'd answer, and I'd yell, "You're an ars***e!" It would always cheer me up.

Later in the year the Phone Company introduced caller ID. This was a real disappointment for me, I would have to stop calling the ars***e.
Then one day I had an idea. I dialed his number, then heard his voice, "Hello?" I made up a name. "Hi. This is the sales office of the Telephone
Company and I'm just calling to see if you're familiar with our caller ID program?" He went, "No!" and slammed the phone down. I quickly called him back and said, "That's because you're an ars***e!"

The reason I took the time to tell you this story, is to show you how if there's ever anything really bothering you, you can do something about it.
Just dial 823-4863!!

Keep reading this, it gets better!

An old lady at the shopping center really took her time pulling out of the parking space. I didn't think she was ever going to leave. Finally, her car began to move and she started to very slowly back out of the slot.

I backed up a little more to give her plenty of room to pull out. "Great", I thought, she's finally leaving. All of a sudden this black BMW comes flying up the parking isle in the wrong direction and pulls into her space.

I hit the horn and started yelling, "You can't do that. I was here first!"
The guy climbed out of his BMW completely ignoring me. He walked toward the shopping center as if he didn't even hear me.

I thought to myself, this guy's an ars***e, there sure is a lot of ars***e's in this world. Then I noticed he had a "For Sale" sign in the back window of his car. I wrote down the number. Then I hunted for another place to park.

A couple of days later, I'm sitting at my desk. I had just gotten off the phone after calling 823-4863 and yelling, "You're an ars***e!" (It's really easy since I have his number on speed dial now!) I noticed the phone number of the guy with the black BMW lying on my desk and thought I'd better call this guy, too. After a couple rings someone answered the phone and said, "Hello." I said, "Is this the man with the black BMW for sale?"
"Yes, it is."
"Can you tell me where I can see it?"
"Yes, I live at 1802 West 34th street. It's a yellow house and the car's parked right out front." I said, "What's your name?"
"My name is Don Hansen."
"When's a good time to catch you, Don?"
"I'm home in the evenings."
"Listen Don, can I tell you something?"
"Yes,"
"Don, you're an ars***e!" And I slammed the phone down.

After I hung up I added Don Hansen's number to my speed dialer. I must say, for a while things seemed to be going much better for me. Now when I had a problem I had two ars***e's to call. Then, after several months of calling the ars***e's and hanging up on them, it just wasn't as enjoyable as it used to be. I gave the problem some serious thought and came up with a solution:

First, I had my phone dial ars****e #1. A man answered nicely saying, "Hello?"
I yelled "You're an ars****e!", but I didn't hang up.
The ars***e said, "Are you still there?"
I said, "Yeah."
He said, "Stop calling me."
I said, "Make me."
He said, "What's your name, Pal?"
So I told him, "Don Hansen."
He said, "Where do you live?"
"1802 West 34th Street. It's a yellow house and my black BMW's parked
out front."
I'm coming over right now, Don. You'd better start saying your prayers."
"Yeah, like I'm really scared, ars****e!" and I hung up.

Then I called ars****e #2.
He answered, "Hello?"
I said, "Hello, ars****e!"
He said, "If I ever find out who you are..."
"You'll what?"
" I'll kick your a***."
"Well, here's your chance. I'm coming over right now, ars****e!"
And I hung up.

Then I picked up the phone and called the police. I told them I was at 1802 West 34th Street and that I was going to kill my g*y lover as soon as I got home.

Another quick call to Channel 13 about the gang war going on down on West 34th Street.

After that I climbed into my car and headed over to 34th Street to watch the whole thing. Glorious satisfaction!
Watching two ars****e's kicking the crap out of each other in front of 6 squad cars, a police helicopter and a news crew was one of the greatest experiences of my life!

Predictable FTSE

2005-10-14T05:18:00.000-07:00

As expected the FTSE tanked.

I closed my long put position and still have my large long futures position open. The futures were successfully hedged with the puts.

Short Term correction

2005-10-11T07:49:00.000-07:00

The brokers are telling me that the FTSE is about to make a big fall.

Get ready to start selling!

Charlie's day out

2005-10-09T11:58:00.000-07:00

We took Young Charles for a walk around the lake at Virginia Water today. It was a beautiful day and he made friends with many other canines. But alas he is not so young anymore and has an arthritic rear leg that shakes uncontrollably.

Other than the leg, I think he thoroughly enjoyed himself, and got to sniff many interesting smells.

Click Here to see a video of Charlie trundling along in the park. His tail is wagging very rigorously which indicates how pleased he is to be dragged around the park.

7Sultans Screenshots

2005-10-08T05:04:00.000-07:00

Get some free margin from 7Sultans

2005-10-07T14:39:00.000-07:00

Trading has been tough this month. October is supposed to be the month of free money. There was even an article in City AM this morning about all the crashes that have historically occured in October.

While many ignorant market commentators and journalists talk of city traders losing millions in crashes, it's actually the other way round, atleast for professionals. The only professional traders who lost money during the London bombs (that I'm aware of) lost out due to IT problems. Almost everyone else had a highly profitable day at the expense of the fools who started selling the shit out of everything.

Anyway, I've probably rambled enough and offended half the readers, but shit happens and I'm not writing this post to make people happy. The purpose of this post is to help my readers make a few quid on which to blow on lap dancers. As I said, this month has been tough, and I've been reduced to spreadbetting to pay the student who dances on my desk all day. So here's the insider tip for the day...

7Sultans are running a highly selective psychological test of new casino players and are giving a nice deal to new players... These new players will be given a free $500 when they sign up, and 15 minutes with which to gamble it. If they win anything during their 15 minutes of glory then they get to keep it (up to $500).

Click Here and use the access code "Test777" to participate in this offer.

Wikipedia

2005-10-06T15:06:00.000-07:00

I'm trying to stick my profile on wikipedia:

The Real Edge

For some reason guitarist has decided to call himself "The Edge" so I've had to settle with calling myself "The Real Edge".

Surf's Up Dude!

2005-10-02T15:17:00.000-07:00

I went to New Quay for some surfing this weekend. I'd never been surfing before, and was dreading a repeat of my collapsed lung incident, but it turned out to be good fun and I suffered nothing more than aching muscles. The conditions were far from glamorous on the beach. The skies were gloomy and cold hail stones bombarded us as we struggled against the waves. The glum scenery made me think of the dark descriptions of Ancient Britain as described in Bernard Cornwell's Warlord series.

The accomodation was less than poor. We were at the Reef Surf Lodge, and to be honest I felt as if they were just trying to rape my wallet. They had fancy decor and and it looks pretty plush. But beneeath the facade I just found it to be a bit crap. For example, the advertised "Wide-flat screen T.V’s in all rooms" were not in all rooms and we were forced to share washing facilities with dirty commoners. But the worst bit was the size. They expected 8 of us to share a tiny room with 3 bunk beds in it. The top bunks were singles. The bottom bunks (12 inches wider than the top bunks) were supposedly doubles. The floor area (excluding the beds) was about 4 square metres at a guess. As you may have gathered, it totally shit and cramped, and I shall not be returning ever again. And if you're thinking that you get what you pay for, the £42 per person for two nights would probably have got us a much better deal elsewhere though I have yet to confirm my suspicions.

The nights out in Newquay were very different to the big city. The Friday night was fairly dead. Few people were about and I guess the local farm girls must have been milking cows long into the night. My spritely looks also got me ID'd at every single bar and I had no identification with me due to mortgage applications. Fortunately the bouncers relented when everyone else showed their driving licenses. Such reasonable bouncers are quite rare, especially when you consider the cunts in Guildford who like nothing better than to exert their manly authority. When I've made my 10th million I may get round to buying some bars purely for the pleasure of randomly firing a few bouncers, but my lawyer claims that I'd need to reserve some funds to fight any resulting employment disputes. Moving back to Newquay, the only feature of the Friday night was a hen night complete with male stripper. I didn't really find him particularly attractive and therefore paid a drunken mate £10 to have a dance off (making sure that he kept his kit on off course). Unfortunately the bouncers were not impressed so we had to adjourn to the local kebab shop. I had a chicken shish which had a large amount of meat but a very poor watery and tomato flavoured chilli sauce. After the kebab we returned to the late night bar at the Reef Surf Lodge. It was empty we chipped in a few quid and made the desperate dancer work his moves for the attractive bar maid. For some reason she didn't like his moves and accused him of bringing food into the establishment. I'm not sure if wearing a ketchup stained shirt counts as "bringing in food", but the bouncer removed the guilty party back to his bed room, which I guess is much better than throwing him out into the cold rain.

The Saturday night was more active and filled with more fillies. It started off with some fish and chips. The shop closed just after we'd eaten our fish and so we were forced to eat out food huddled against a car park wall to protect us from the wind. It really made me identify with the local chavs who must do that sort of thing on a regular basis. The fish was top stuff though and I thoroughly enjoyed the meal. After that we just went to a few bars. I pressed a wrong button on my camera and corrupted the memory card which was a bit crap.

I'm going to bed now. Good night.

888 is down as expected

2005-09-29T04:25:00.000-07:00

888 is down in morning trade. This was expected when I wrote that I was going to sell 888.com a couple of weeks ago.

People who have actually used their services have realised that it just isn't any good.

Annoying Pension Funds

2005-09-29T02:33:00.000-07:00

A pension fund is dumping loads of index futures. Unfortunately he has more money than me and it's starting to hurt. I guess they must be profit taking as many technical resistance levels have been breached lately. FTSE 100 is above 5,500 as I write.

I've used the free £75 bet from City Index to hedge my bet against Wheels. According to this morning's papers, the police recon another terrorist attack is likely, so I've bought a November 5,075 strike FTSE put. The bid/ask spread at spreadbetting firms is massive, but it's free and every little counts. Should something unpleasant occur I will be hedged against a massive downwards spike in prices.

Please donate

2005-09-28T06:06:00.000-07:00

I'm starting to feel a little guilty for betting against Wheels. It seems that he's started shorting the FTSE to double his profit should he win the bet. Unfortunately, he may also get wiped out when the FTSE hits 6,000, and if that happens then his cat may go hungry.

I have therefore started a fund to pay for The Cat's food should Wheels go bust. You can donate via the "Donate Now" button on the left of the page.

Please give generously.

If Wheels does not go bust then the donated funds will be given to charity.

FTSE is going to 6,000

2005-09-27T13:44:00.000-07:00

The FTSE 100 is going to hit 6,000 and I'm riding the wave upwards.

It has broken above 5,400 comfortably. And historically 5,500 has been a weak resistance level.

But technicals aren't what I'm interested in. They can just be read that off any free financial newsletter.

The edge comes from being involved in the markets. Trading in and out all day. And getting a feel to how it will react to both news and games played with the market makers. Listenning to the word on the street and assessing the value of each and every small piece of information.

The bears frequently quote various economic indicators that are showing weakness. However, the my sources tell me that funds are buying, as well as the prop desks of a couple of major investment banks. The FTSE's rally is steady rather than steep. And that, to me, suggests strength rather than signs of a bubble.

I am therefore long and not wrong the FTSE, planning on riding the wave all the way to 6,000 and glorious retirement.

BUY BUY BUY!

Fifth Avenue Partners, Michael Brown

2005-09-26T15:20:00.000-07:00

George Trefgarne reported in The Telegraph that Michael Brown, a hedge fund manager at Fifth Avenue Partners is being investigated by the Election Commission over his £2 million donation to the Liberal Democrats.

Plenty of other writers have commentated on the donation. But what interested me was the claim that upon visiting the Fifth Capital Partners website, the journalist George Trefgarne was called up by the hedge fund's PR man, Lehman. Why a hedge fund would be so secretive is beyond me. But the fact that they have such tracking software on their website is impressive.

Anyway, I was tempted to cause some havoc and wanted to visit their site from my trading office to see if I'd get a friendly phone call. However, they must have since hidden their site very well as I cannot seem to locate it on the interweb.

Oh well. Seeing as I can't find Mikey anywhere I guess I'll have to post here and hope that he searches the web to find some trading tips from the best damn Euribor trader in the City.

Michael... If you want to test out your skills against The Edge, I'm the guy who always bids 7272 lots in the front month Euribor contract. I would have voted Lib Dem in the election, but my friend's husband, one of their MP's, told me they'd charge me more tax. And being a spritely young 19 year old climbing out of da Staines Ghetto, I need to try and minimise my tax burden over the next few years. Please don't take it personally.

Trade Hard,

The Edge.

Jazeera Airways

2005-09-24T14:29:00.000-07:00

Jazeera Airways is a new no frills airline based in Kuwait. It might be worth watching in the future.

Boring Trading Week

2005-09-24T12:13:00.000-07:00

Last week was fairly dull in terms of trading.

The new contracts launched by Eurex have been a bit poor. None of the markets are dynamic, so I can't analyse the market depth. And the market makers aren't providing a tight market. I really do wonder why Eurex bother to create these new products if they can't be bothered to promote them properly. They're just wasting everyone's time.

I didn't go to the launch party for the Eurex US Currency Futures. I feel like an old man, but at a spritely 19 years of age that just isn't true.

A bird from some trading magazine (can't find the name or URL) wants someone from my firm to pose for their next issue in a Reservoir Dogs inspired shot. Who the fuck do they think we are? We're not criminals and have no wish to be associated with CSFB's Flaming Ferraris. Anyway, the publication is regarded as a bit of a joke by those in the industry, so I doubt they'll have too many takers.

Trading Diary Moved Here

2005-09-24T12:07:00.000-07:00

The old Trading with The Edge was having issues. So I've moved it here.

Trading With The Edge - v2

Boring Politics

DAX

dax

more dax

Dax trade

Subprime fears add volatility to the markets

Crude Oil $5 spike

US Home Sales

Iran interogating British Sailors

Iran Kidnaps 15 British Sailors

Debt Consolidation Loan – the fighting fire with fire approach

Ascent Loft Conversions

Debt shares dive

Dax set to die

DAX set to rally today

Long EURGBP

Buy CAC

Pricing Abheration... Dax Futures Are Undervalued.

What is Israel going to do?

Working from home next week

Related Links

Cleared out my City Index account.

Is this World War 3????

A new boring month

Ban Speculation?

What's causing all this bund craziness?

Volatility is up, FTSE is down

FT Speculates, Be careful what you wish for

Strip club takes off despite Wall St. crackdown

Free money is just round the corner!

Candover disappeared but should be coming back

30y and 10y auctions today

Bank Station Closed Due to Security Alert

Nick Leeson

Retails sales artificially high

Liverpool Street is closed due to a security alert

black smoke coming from moorgate tube?

tokyo earthquakes

Bund Troubles

Get rich quick - 800% rates - its true...

Iranian President on Bloomberg

RE: hi

Man Down!

Let's get this moving

DebtMatters Triples Up!

Debt Free Direct Doubles Up, Britons "trapped by debt burden"

Sponsored Results

Debt stocks hit new highs, metals and oil hit new hits, barclays recommend selling duration

Time to pile into Gambling Stocks?

Amazon?

It's free! FTSE hits 6,000

Alvarion tipped, bought FLO and TIK

Debt stocks double, more tips

Debt stocks double, more tips

Why oil will hit $100 a barrel

Google Shares down 4.7%

bmw.de banned, time to go short

ICAP Doubles Up, Centrica Natural Gas, Annoying Phone Calls

Russell 2000

Contrary Opinions

Ryanair upsetting customers with £5 baggage charge

FTSE 100 News, Malaysian Blog

FTSE Back up

Good News for debt stocks

Got filled on Lok 'N' Store Group

BullionVault

A good start to the year

Tiring Weekend

The World's Most Eligible Bachelor gets hate mail

Hemel Hampstead Oil Depot Explosion Disappointments

Buy CS Group

Christmas Shopping

Trip to Budapest, Hungary, with Easyjet and Easy...

Debt Free Direct, who needs a stop loss!!!???

Merk to axe 7,000 jobs, CEO Richard Clark gives few details

really wierd website

Hand Problem

Health Links

Adsense - easy money from your website